948
FXUS64 KSJT 111118
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
618 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MARGINAL (5 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT
(15 PERCENT) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE BIG COUNTRY SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY PRODUCTS. NEVERTHELESS, MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY
AND STAY HYDRATED IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MOVING
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. WILL KEEP A LOW END CHANCE (20-40%) OF POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH
OF I-20 ON FRIDAY, NEAR THE REMNANT BOUNDARY. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
BIG COUNTRY MAY REACH 100. SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES, THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS, AND A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY PROGGED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE WEAK TO MARGINAL. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS. A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS IS PROGGED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
SUNDAY, AND 1.75 TO 2.1 INCHES MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION. THE AREA
WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE 80S AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH 80. SOME RAIN
CHANCE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY MAINLY FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO A GREATER EXTENT THURSDAY, AS A RIDGE
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES EAST INTO TEXAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 97 77 95 77 / 0 10 20 0
SAN ANGELO 97 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 96 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 96 76 95 75 / 0 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 100 76 96 76 / 0 20 10 0
OZONA 94 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 95 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...42
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