439
FXUS64 KSJT 111821
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
121 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MARGINAL (5 PERCENT) TO SLIGHT
(15 PERCENT) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AFTERNOON. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WITH THE
CONVECTION SAGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. STILL A QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL SURVIVE INTO HASKELL
AND THROCKMORTON BUT OVERALL 20-30 POPS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
MOMENT. WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL SAG TOWARDS I-20 ON FRIDAY, AND MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION AROUND SWEETWATER OR ABILENE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHATS LEFT OF THE INITIAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE, WITH THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS ARRIVING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RIGHT NOW, APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE FRONT SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL HAVE
THEIR DIFFERENCES ON HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY BE, BUT MOST
DO SHOW AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN
REDEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME HEATING.
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND MORE CLOUD COVER, WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 80S. PROBABLY NEED
TO ENJOY THOSE TEMPERATURES WHILE WE CAN, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. MODEL BLENDS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK, AND IF THESE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
RIGHT, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD HEAT
ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS FOR THE SUMMER ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME OF THIS WILL ABSOLUTELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THAT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN, MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 77 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 0
SAN ANGELO 75 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 73 95 72 95 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 75 94 74 96 / 0 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 95 75 97 / 20 30 10 0
OZONA 74 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 74 93 72 94 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...41
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