324
FXUS64 KSJT 120509
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1209 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AFTERNOON. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WITH THE
CONVECTION SAGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. STILL A QUESTION HOW MUCH WILL SURVIVE INTO HASKELL
AND THROCKMORTON BUT OVERALL 20-30 POPS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
MOMENT. WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL SAG TOWARDS I-20 ON FRIDAY, AND MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION AROUND SWEETWATER OR ABILENE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE ALOFT IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA.
A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, THE
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS SETUP A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AND MAY REACH I-20 BY EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY 7 AM MONDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS PROGGED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SLOW-MOVING OR
TRAINING CONVECTION WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 80S, AND
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH 80. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK, WHEN A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TEXAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT OR ABOVE 100 IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100-104 IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA, TO 105-108 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF. IF TEMPERATURES GET THIS HOT AND CURRENT FORECAST DEWPOINTS
HOLD IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, HEAT INDICES WOULD POTENTIALLY
REACH 110 IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE NEED FOR
HEAT ADVISORIES/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT STRATUS
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORING WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 94 76 96 75 / 30 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 96 75 96 75 / 10 10 0 0
JUNCTION 95 72 95 73 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 94 74 96 75 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 94 75 97 74 / 30 0 0 10
OZONA 93 73 93 73 / 10 0 0 0
BRADY 93 73 94 73 / 10 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...21
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