051
FXUS64 KSJT 121131
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST
PART TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. IN THEIR WAKE, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY, AND THE CAMS SUPPORT THIS THINKING
WITH A FEW OF THEM DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO, WILL HAVE
A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES, THAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AS
WELL. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO END DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
DAY TIME HEATING IS LOST, WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN, THOUGH THEY
SHOULDN'T BE QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AGAIN, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE ALOFT IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA.
A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, THE
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS SETUP A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AND MAY REACH I-20 BY EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY 7 AM MONDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS PROGGED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SLOW-MOVING OR
TRAINING CONVECTION WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 80S, AND
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH 80. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK, WHEN A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TEXAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT OR ABOVE 100 IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100-104 IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA, TO 105-108 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF. IF TEMPERATURES GET THIS HOT AND CURRENT FORECAST DEWPOINTS
HOLD IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, HEAT INDICES WOULD POTENTIALLY
REACH 110 IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD BRING THE NEED FOR
HEAT ADVISORIES/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT OUR AREA THIS
MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. WILL KEEP THESE LOW CLOUDS IN OUR
SOUTHERN TAF FORECASTS THROUGH LATE MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE KABI TERMINAL
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PLACEMENT AND
COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS, SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE KABI TAF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 94 76 96 75 / 30 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 96 75 96 75 / 10 10 0 0
JUNCTION 95 72 95 73 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 94 74 96 75 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 94 75 97 74 / 30 0 0 10
OZONA 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 93 73 94 73 / 10 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20
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