048
FXUS64 KSJT 121810
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
110 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORY OR EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CAMS
PICK UP ON THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY, OTHERS DONT'T PICK UP ON IT ALL, AND OTHERS PICK UP ON
THE BOUNDARY BUT BLOW UP MORE CONVECTION THAN THE RADARS ARE
SHOWING. CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING SOME POPS UP ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOP BEFORE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES VERY MUCH. FOR
NOW, WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS AND MONITOR LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IS CHANCES NEED TO BE BUMPED UP OR DOWN AS
THE OUTFLOW APPROACHES.
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATER TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
LOOK MUCH SMALLER. MAINLY GOING TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT ALL WEEK, MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA
WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. NOT GOING TO ARGUE WITH MODEL
BLENDS FOR POPS AT THIS POINT, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT DOES LOOK A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS, SO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES. FAIRLY TYPICAL JUNE SET UP, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO A DECREASE IN
SEVERE CHANCES AND A LITTLE BIGGER CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES SO
SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. QUESTION REALLY IS: HOW MUCH
FALLS OVER 1 AREA AND THATS JUST TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO GET A GOOD
FEELING WITH THAT. WPC HAS ADDED SOME OF THE AREA BACK INTO A DAY
3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AND COMPLETELY AGREE WITH THAT.
ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE
HEAT CLIMBS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 100 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-100 RANGE, THIS LOOKS
TO BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
NEEDED DAYS OF THE SUMMER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ALL OF THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY 20Z.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE LOW (20-30%). THEN, WE WILL HAVE A
REPEAT OF THE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 95 75 89 / 10 0 0 50
SAN ANGELO 74 95 74 92 / 10 0 0 20
JUNCTION 72 94 73 93 / 10 0 0 10
BROWNWOOD 74 94 75 91 / 0 0 0 40
SWEETWATER 74 96 74 88 / 10 10 10 50
OZONA 72 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 10
BRADY 72 93 73 91 / 10 0 0 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...41
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