263
FXUS64 KSJT 130517
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1217 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 105
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CAMS
PICK UP ON THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY, OTHERS DONT'T PICK UP ON IT ALL, AND OTHERS PICK UP ON
THE BOUNDARY BUT BLOW UP MORE CONVECTION THAN THE RADARS ARE
SHOWING. CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING SOME POPS UP ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOP BEFORE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES VERY MUCH. FOR
NOW, WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS AND MONITOR LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IS CHANCES NEED TO BE BUMPED UP OR DOWN AS
THE OUTFLOW APPROACHES.
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATER TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
LOOK MUCH SMALLER. MAINLY GOING TO BE HOT AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, THE
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS SETUP A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AND MAY REACH I-20 BY EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
BY 7 AM MONDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES SHIFTING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS PROGGED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 2.1 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING
CONVECTION WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK, WHEN A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TEXAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE 100-105 DEGREES WEDNSDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND
CONCHO VALLEY. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100-103
IN MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA, TO 104-106 ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF. WITH RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED, HEAT
INDICES WILL BE PUSHING 105-110 ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE
THAT THIS WILL BRING THE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES (HEAT
ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING). THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER. SOME OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BRINGING A DISTURBANCE NORTH INTO TEXAS
FROM EASTERN MEXICO, AND HAVING THE DISTURBANCE STALL OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS AND BRING A LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT STRATUS
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORING WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 95 75 89 66 / 0 0 60 80
SAN ANGELO 94 74 92 67 / 0 0 20 80
JUNCTION 94 73 94 70 / 0 0 10 70
BROWNWOOD 94 74 92 67 / 0 0 30 90
SWEETWATER 95 74 87 64 / 0 0 40 80
OZONA 92 73 92 69 / 0 0 10 80
BRADY 93 73 91 68 / 0 0 10 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...21
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