496
FXUS64 KSJT 132347
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 105
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MILD AND HUMID TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
TOWARD DAYBREAK, WHICH WILL BRING SOME LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE
LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM TO HIGH (70-80%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST ON TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE
MID 60S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPTRESS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL. THE ONE CAVEAT IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS.
THIS FEATURE MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA, IN TURN RESULTING IN SLIGHTS COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST (ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES). AS IT
IS, THE LATEST NBM NUMBERS HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO
104 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND AND BIG COUNTRY TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. MOST OF THE REGION WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY
MARK ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 104.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST NBM IS BEGINNING TO CATCH ON TO THIS
TREND IN THE MODELS AND HAS TRENDED TEMPERATURES COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO
TRENDED UP SOME WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR (AROUND 5K FT CEILINGS) AFTER
17Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND REACH KABI
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND KSJT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WILL INCLUDE
A PROB30 GROUP FOR KABI THIS FORECAST CYCLE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH BUT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 15/00Z. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST AT
KABI AND KSJT FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 90 68 81 / 0 40 70 60
SAN ANGELO 74 93 69 81 / 0 10 70 70
JUNCTION 72 93 71 83 / 0 20 70 90
BROWNWOOD 74 92 69 81 / 0 20 80 60
SWEETWATER 74 88 66 80 / 0 30 60 60
OZONA 72 92 70 82 / 0 0 60 80
BRADY 72 91 70 79 / 0 10 90 80
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...24
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