484
FXUS64 KSJT 141133
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
633 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 105
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN OUTFLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THAT
HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. AS AFTERNOON HEATING
OCCURS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE
BOUNDARY STALLS IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION IS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST/WEST LINE FROM THE
CONCHO VALLEY INTO THE HEARTLAND. AS STORMS DEVELOP, THE FRONT AND
LINE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS AT
THIS TIME WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL (MAINLY UP TO
QUARTER- SIZE) AND/OR WIND GUSTS TO 60+ MPH. WHILE THE ENTIRE
AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-20, AND PARTICULARLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 10. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-20 TO THE MID 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH LOWS TONIGHT
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS 80 TO 85. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT HEAT EVENT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO 105. THE
HOTTEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING 110 FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
FOR POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SCATTERED VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE AFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING, SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST TEMPO GROUPS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT OUR SOUTHERN SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING, AND
WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THESE
STORMS WITH PROB30 GROUPS. THE OTHER AFFECT OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. AS THE STORMS EXIT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT, MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN OVER THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 67 81 68 / 40 50 50 0
SAN ANGELO 92 68 81 68 / 20 60 50 0
JUNCTION 95 71 84 69 / 20 60 70 30
BROWNWOOD 92 69 81 68 / 30 70 50 10
SWEETWATER 89 66 81 66 / 30 40 40 0
OZONA 92 70 83 68 / 10 70 60 10
BRADY 91 69 79 68 / 20 70 70 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20
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