549
FXUS64 KSJT 141908
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
208 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY), WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 105
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE BIG
COUNTRY AND IS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2
INCHES OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
MOVING SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, HAVE ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SETUPS WHERE NOT
EVERYONE IN THE WATCH WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING,
BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS, WE DO EXPECT
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WATCH TO SEE HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST
FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO I-10, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FARTHER NORTH, SO HAVE INCLUDED THE CONCHO VALLEY IN THE WATCH
AS WELL. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN (40-80%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END BY LATE MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF ABOVE TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LESS HOT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE HOT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE HIGHS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 AND 104. MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN INDICATING A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH ANY FRONT AND INDICATES A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 102, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED A BIT IF THE GFS
SOLUTION BEGINS TO LOOK MORE LIKELY.
THE NEXT CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, VERSUS THE
DRIER ECMWF. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE WEAK FRONT IN THE REGION, RESULTS IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RANGE, BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL LESS HOT, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL
HAIL, ERRATIC WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. MVFR TO IFR LEVEL CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL NOT
IMPROVE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 83 68 91 / 50 30 0 10
SAN ANGELO 68 82 68 91 / 70 40 10 0
JUNCTION 70 82 68 89 / 90 70 20 10
BROWNWOOD 68 82 68 89 / 70 50 0 0
SWEETWATER 66 83 67 93 / 30 20 0 10
OZONA 69 83 68 90 / 80 40 10 0
BRADY 69 79 68 87 / 90 50 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CONCHO-CROCKETT-IRION-
KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...DANIELS
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