795
FXUS64 KSJT 151138
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
638 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL, THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A MODERATE TO HIGH
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND HEARTLAND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FIRST OF ALL, IT IS EXTREMELY RARE TO SEE A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR CWA SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING IN THE HIGH RISK AREA, WHICH COVERS PORTIONS OF CROCKETT
AND SUTTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE A MARGINAL RISK EXISTS. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA INDICATES AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING WHILE THE HIGH RISK AREA INDICATES AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING (POSSIBLY CATASTROPHIC) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE 00Z HREF 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ARI GUIDANCE, THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 500 TO 1000 YEAR RAINFALL AMOUNT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHERE
THE RAIN FALLS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MOVEMENT
OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THEY DEVELOP. A BROAD
500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIKE LAST NIGHT, NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN
MCV SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD
ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AS
INDICATED BY THE 00Z NAM. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADJUST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE FLOOD WATCH TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BIG
BEND REGION ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2+
INCHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LIFT AND
MOIST AIRMASS THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BY ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHERE EXACTLY THE MCV IS
POSITIONED IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK. NEVERTHELESS, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY- AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY WELL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY, EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE
HEARTLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
COVERING MOST OF THE CWA AS A RESULT EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
PREVAILING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 800FT AT KCOM AND KOZA TO NEAR
8000FT AT KABI. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 3SM WITH RAIN AT KBBD TO
NEAR 5SM WITH RAIN AND MIST AT KJCT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A MCV SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO BRING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR LOCAL AERODROMES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 85 68 84 70 / 40 40 50 50
SAN ANGELO 81 65 81 67 / 80 80 60 80
JUNCTION 82 66 83 68 / 90 90 60 60
BROWNWOOD 83 68 83 69 / 60 50 50 40
SWEETWATER 83 66 82 68 / 40 40 60 70
OZONA 80 64 80 66 / 90 90 70 90
BRADY 80 66 81 68 / 80 60 60 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CONCHO-CROCKETT-IRION-
KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...61
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