600
FXUS64 KSJT 151720
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL, THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A MODERATE TO HIGH
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND HEARTLAND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FIRST OF ALL, IT IS EXTREMELY RARE TO SEE A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN OUR CWA SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING IN THE HIGH RISK AREA, WHICH COVERS PORTIONS OF CROCKETT
AND SUTTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE A MARGINAL RISK EXISTS. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA INDICATES AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING WHILE THE HIGH RISK AREA INDICATES AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING (POSSIBLY CATASTROPHIC) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE 00Z HREF 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ARI GUIDANCE, THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 500 TO 1000 YEAR RAINFALL AMOUNT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHERE
THE RAIN FALLS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MOVEMENT
OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THEY DEVELOP. A BROAD
500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIKE LAST NIGHT, NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN
MCV SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD
ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AS
INDICATED BY THE 00Z NAM. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADJUST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE FLOOD WATCH TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BIG
BEND REGION ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2+
INCHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LIFT AND
MOIST AIRMASS THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BY ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHERE EXACTLY THE MCV IS
POSITIONED IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK. NEVERTHELESS, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY- AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY WELL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MVFR TO IFR LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT ON AND OFF ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
REDUCED VISIBILITY REMAINS A CONCERN DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 68 83 70 86 / 50 70 50 50
SAN ANGELO 65 81 67 84 / 90 90 70 70
JUNCTION 66 84 68 86 / 90 70 60 30
BROWNWOOD 67 83 70 87 / 60 70 40 20
SWEETWATER 66 81 68 84 / 50 80 70 70
OZONA 65 81 66 83 / 90 90 80 80
BRADY 66 82 68 85 / 80 70 40 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CONCHO-CROCKETT-IRION-
KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...41
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