758
FXUS64 KSJT 160557
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL, THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A MODERATE TO HIGH
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND HEARTLAND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
WEAK SYSTEMS IN WEAK FLOW CONTINUE TO CREATE A LOWER CONFIDENCE
BUT HIGHER POTENTIAL IMPACT FLOOD SITUATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.
LOOKS LIKE A BROAD WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA,
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR SAN ANGELO ITSELF. ON ITS SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT, SEVERAL MCV CIRCULATIONS ARE ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY (INCLUDING THE MAIN ONE CENTERED NEAR THE
MASON/GILLESPIE/LLANO LINES). SO FAR, HEAVIEST RAIN FALL TODAY
HAS OCCURRED IN MASON COUNTY WHERE 2+ INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A
COUPLE HOURS. EVEN THE LIGHTER SHOWERS THOUGH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH THE ACTIVITY AROUND SAN ANGELO THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SOME TOTALS NEAR 3/4 OF AN INCH. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE HIGH (NEARLY 2 INCHES) AND THE CONVECTION FAIRLY SLOW
MOVING.
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS FORECASTED TO
DRIFT FARTHER WEST. THIS PUTS MORE OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE
CRITICAL SOUTHEAST/EAST QUADRANT WHERE ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MOST POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW THIS GENERAL IDEA, BUT
VARY GREATLY IN THE CRITICAL DETAILS ONCE AGAIN. SOMEWHERE FROM
SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA SOUTH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY MAY WELL SEE HIGH END 5-10+ INCHES OF RAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING, AND GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AND THE
FACT THAT CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING NEARLY FULL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH END FLASH FLOODING EVENT IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY THAT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED, EVEN IF THE CHANCES OF IT
OCCURRING ARE RELATIVELY LOW. THE CONFIDENCE OF KNOWING WHERE
THAT MIGHT HAPPEN HOWEVER REMAINS LOWER THAN WE WOULD LIKE IT, BUT
OF NOTE, THIS RISK AREA HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WEST AND NORTH INTO
THE CONCHO VALLEY TO INCLUDE SAN ANGELO.
DISCUSSION WITH WPC AND EWX, AND THERE WAS A CONSIDERATION OF
BUMPING MORE OF THE AREA INTO A HIGH RISK ON THE ERO FOR TOMORROW,
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE, AGREEMENT WAS TO KEEP IT AS
A MODERATE FOR NOW. IF THE SIGNAL CHANGES AND A SPECIFIC AREA
STARTS TO BECOME MORE LOCKED IN, AN UPGRADE MAY WELL BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
UPPER LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST MEANS ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH WITH EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IF IT
DOES DEVELOP, THE AREA WILL SHIFT WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND BE
FOCUSED MORE ON THE CONCHO VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WEST INTO
THE PERMIAN BASIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT MUCH LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
DRIFTING WEST. AFTER SOME CLOUDIER AND COOLER DAYS LATELY, THE
HEAT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A COMBINATION OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PERIODS OF SHRA/TS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AT TIMES. EXPECT
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20
KNOTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY
EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 70 86 71 / 80 30 40 10
SAN ANGELO 83 68 85 69 / 80 60 40 30
JUNCTION 85 69 86 70 / 60 50 20 10
BROWNWOOD 84 70 87 71 / 60 40 10 10
SWEETWATER 81 68 84 69 / 90 50 50 30
OZONA 82 67 83 69 / 90 80 60 20
BRADY 82 69 85 69 / 60 40 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN
SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24
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