471
FXUS64 KSJT 160620 CCA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
120 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL, TODAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, HEARTLAND, AND CONCHO CONCHO VALLEY INTO
NOLAN COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
WEAK SYSTEMS IN WEAK FLOW CONTINUE TO CREATE A LOWER CONFIDENCE
BUT HIGHER POTENTIAL IMPACT FLOOD SITUATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.
LOOKS LIKE A BROAD WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA,
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR SAN ANGELO ITSELF. ON ITS SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT, SEVERAL MCV CIRCULATIONS ARE ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY (INCLUDING THE MAIN ONE CENTERED NEAR THE
MASON/GILLESPIE/LLANO LINES). SO FAR, HEAVIEST RAIN FALL TODAY
HAS OCCURRED IN MASON COUNTY WHERE 2+ INCHES HAS FALLEN IN A
COUPLE HOURS. EVEN THE LIGHTER SHOWERS THOUGH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH THE ACTIVITY AROUND SAN ANGELO THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SOME TOTALS NEAR 3/4 OF AN INCH. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE HIGH (NEARLY 2 INCHES) AND THE CONVECTION FAIRLY SLOW
MOVING.
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS FORECASTED TO
DRIFT FARTHER WEST. THIS PUTS MORE OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE
CRITICAL SOUTHEAST/EAST QUADRANT WHERE ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MOST POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW THIS GENERAL IDEA, BUT
VARY GREATLY IN THE CRITICAL DETAILS ONCE AGAIN. SOMEWHERE FROM
SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA SOUTH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY MAY WELL SEE HIGH END 5-10+ INCHES OF RAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING, AND GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AND THE
FACT THAT CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING NEARLY FULL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH END FLASH FLOODING EVENT IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY THAT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED, EVEN IF THE CHANCES OF IT
OCCURRING ARE RELATIVELY LOW. THE CONFIDENCE OF KNOWING WHERE
THAT MIGHT HAPPEN HOWEVER REMAINS LOWER THAN WE WOULD LIKE IT, BUT
OF NOTE, THIS RISK AREA HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WEST AND NORTH INTO
THE CONCHO VALLEY TO INCLUDE SAN ANGELO.
DISCUSSION WITH WPC AND EWX, AND THERE WAS A CONSIDERATION OF
BUMPING MORE OF THE AREA INTO A HIGH RISK ON THE ERO FOR TOMORROW,
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE, AGREEMENT WAS TO KEEP IT AS
A MODERATE FOR NOW. IF THE SIGNAL CHANGES AND A SPECIFIC AREA
STARTS TO BECOME MORE LOCKED IN, AN UPGRADE MAY WELL BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WEST TEXAS NEAR MIDLAND AROUND
7 AM FRIDAY, AND TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO NEAR KERMIT BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MAKE LITTLE FURTHER
WESTWARD PROGRESS ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
WHILE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A LINGERING LOW (20-30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY, THE TREND WILL BE FOR
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE
BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF I-20.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MOST NOTABLY FOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS. BY MIDWEEK THE HIGH
COULD BE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO MID 90S IN THE
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. BY WEDNESDAY, FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO 100-102 DEGREES IN
MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A COMBINATION OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PERIODS OF SHRA/TS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AT TIMES. EXPECT
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20
KNOTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY
EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 70 86 71 / 80 30 40 10
SAN ANGELO 83 68 85 69 / 80 60 40 30
JUNCTION 85 69 86 70 / 60 50 20 10
BROWNWOOD 84 70 87 71 / 60 40 10 10
SWEETWATER 81 68 84 69 / 90 50 50 30
OZONA 82 67 83 69 / 90 80 60 20
BRADY 82 69 85 69 / 60 40 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN
SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24
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