787
FXUS64 KSJT 160704
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
204 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, HEARTLAND, AND CONCHO CONCHO VALLEY INTO
NOLAN COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY WEST INTO WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY TONIGHT. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW, A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES, HIGHEST OVER THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A
BARNHART TO MASON LINE, WHERE A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EXISTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WEST TEXAS NEAR MIDLAND AROUND
7 AM FRIDAY, AND TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO NEAR KERMIT BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MAKE LITTLE FURTHER
WESTWARD PROGRESS ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
WHILE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A LINGERING LOW (20-30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY, THE TREND WILL BE FOR
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE
BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF I-20.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MOST NOTABLY FOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS. BY MIDWEEK THE HIGH
COULD BE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO MID 90S IN THE
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. BY WEDNESDAY, FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO 100-102 DEGREES IN
MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A COMBINATION OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PERIODS OF SHRA/TS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AT TIMES. EXPECT
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20
KNOTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING BY
EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 70 86 71 / 80 30 40 10
SAN ANGELO 83 68 85 69 / 80 60 40 30
JUNCTION 85 69 86 70 / 60 50 20 10
BROWNWOOD 84 70 87 71 / 60 40 10 10
SWEETWATER 81 68 84 69 / 90 50 50 30
OZONA 82 67 83 69 / 90 80 60 20
BRADY 82 69 85 69 / 60 40 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN
SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24
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