908
FXUS64 KSJT 161802
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
102 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, HEARTLAND, AND CONCHO CONCHO VALLEY INTO
NOLAN COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY WEST INTO WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY TONIGHT. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW, A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES, HIGHEST OVER THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A
BARNHART TO MASON LINE, WHERE A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EXISTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WEST TEXAS NEAR MIDLAND
AROUND 7 AM FRIDAY, AND TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO NEAR KERMIT BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MAKE LITTLE
FURTHER WESTWARD PROGRESS ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WHILE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A LINGERING LOW
(20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY, THE
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE 80S FOR
HIGHS ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF
I-20.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MOST NOTABLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS. BY
MIDWEEK THE HIGH COULD BE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER. HIGHS
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO MID 90S IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. BY WEDNESDAY,
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, TO 100-102 DEGREES IN MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SHRA AND TSRA HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TONIGHT, LIKELY STARTING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SO, HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE FORECASTS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT, AND AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FOR OUR SOUTHERN SITES. OTHER
THAN THUNDERSTORM GUSTS, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING
AFTERNOON PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 86 71 89 / 60 50 20 10
SAN ANGELO 68 85 69 87 / 80 70 30 20
JUNCTION 69 86 70 88 / 70 20 20 0
BROWNWOOD 70 86 71 89 / 60 20 20 0
SWEETWATER 68 84 70 88 / 70 80 20 20
OZONA 67 83 69 85 / 90 80 20 30
BRADY 68 84 69 87 / 60 10 20 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN
SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20
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