385
FXUS64 KSJT 162020
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A ROBY TO ABILENE TO
BROWNWOOD LINE, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY, HEARTLAND, AND PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MAY HAVE EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN AND THE INGREDIENTS ARE STILL IN PLACE.
IF THE HEAVER RAINFALL DOES DEVELOP, SATURATED SOILS MEAN THAT A
HIGHER END FLASH FLOOD EVENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SAW 3-8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH A POCKET ACROSS TAYLOR AND NOLAN SEEING
5-8 INCHES WITH A STORM THAT REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY, AND THEN
ANOTHER CLUSTER THAT PRODUCED 3-7 INCHES ACROSS HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON. RAINFALL WAS SPOTTIER ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
BUT OVERALL SOILS REMAINED SATURATED IN MOST AREAS. ABUNDANT
RUNOFF HAS MEANT QUICK SPIKES ON RIVERS ON THE LLANO BASINS AND
NOW SEEING SOME RISES ON THE SAN SABA AS WELL.
MODELS TONIGHT VARY GREATLY, FROM ONES LIKE THE HRRR AND NOW THE
NEW 18Z RRFS THAT ARE PRODUCING 2-5+ INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
POINT TOTALS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU UP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND SAN ANGLO SOUTHEAST INTO THE ALREADY FLOODED HILL COUNTRY
COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS MAY EXTEND INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AS WELL,
AND GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING, WENT AHEAD AND PUSHED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE TAYLOR AND FISHER COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHER MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER.
GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA, SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPING
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME ALTHOUGH
WEAKER MCV'S ACROSS THE AREA, THE THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT IS A REAL CONCERN. THE AIR MASS IS A LITTLE
WORKED OVER AND THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS SO FAR KEPT
THE JUICIEST MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT BACK THIS FAR NORTHWEST TODAY
BUT THE CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND THERE SHOULD BE A
RETURN SURGE LATER TONIGHT. THUS, AFTER A LULL THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AND TOTALS WILL ADD UP
VERY QUICKLY. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATION
TO SEE A 10+ INCH RAIN TOTAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS, NO PLACE IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CAN HANDLE THIS TYPE OF
EXTREME RAINFALL WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
OVERALL, THE CONVECTIVE TREND FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS DOWN, AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST AND DISSIPATES AND THE MCVS EVENTUALLY
STOP ACTING AS A FOCUS. STILL, PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. AFTER THAT, MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SHRA AND TSRA HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TONIGHT, LIKELY STARTING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SO, HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE FORECASTS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT, AND AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FOR OUR SOUTHERN SITES. OTHER
THAN THUNDERSTORM GUSTS, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING
AFTERNOON PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 86 71 89 / 60 50 20 10
SAN ANGELO 68 85 69 87 / 80 70 30 20
JUNCTION 69 86 70 88 / 70 20 20 0
BROWNWOOD 70 86 71 89 / 60 20 20 0
SWEETWATER 68 84 70 88 / 70 80 20 20
OZONA 67 83 69 85 / 90 80 20 30
BRADY 68 84 69 87 / 60 10 20 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-FISHER-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-
RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page