648
FXUS64 KSJT 170420
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A ROBY TO ABILENE TO
BROWNWOOD LINE, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY, HEARTLAND, AND PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MAY HAVE EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN AND THE INGREDIENTS ARE STILL IN PLACE.
IF THE HEAVER RAINFALL DOES DEVELOP, SATURATED SOILS MEAN THAT A
HIGHER END FLASH FLOOD EVENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SAW 3-8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH A POCKET ACROSS TAYLOR AND NOLAN SEEING
5-8 INCHES WITH A STORM THAT REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY, AND THEN
ANOTHER CLUSTER THAT PRODUCED 3-7 INCHES ACROSS HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON. RAINFALL WAS SPOTTIER ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
BUT OVERALL SOILS REMAINED SATURATED IN MOST AREAS. ABUNDANT
RUNOFF HAS MEANT QUICK SPIKES ON RIVERS ON THE LLANO BASINS AND
NOW SEEING SOME RISES ON THE SAN SABA AS WELL.
MODELS TONIGHT VARY GREATLY, FROM ONES LIKE THE HRRR AND NOW THE
NEW 18Z RRFS THAT ARE PRODUCING 2-5+ INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
POINT TOTALS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU UP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND SAN ANGLO SOUTHEAST INTO THE ALREADY FLOODED HILL COUNTRY
COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS MAY EXTEND INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AS WELL,
AND GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING, WENT AHEAD AND PUSHED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE TAYLOR AND FISHER COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHER MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER.
GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA, SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPING
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME ALTHOUGH
WEAKER MCV'S ACROSS THE AREA, THE THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT IS A REAL CONCERN. THE AIR MASS IS A LITTLE
WORKED OVER AND THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS SO FAR KEPT
THE JUICIEST MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT BACK THIS FAR NORTHWEST TODAY
BUT THE CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND THERE SHOULD BE A
RETURN SURGE LATER TONIGHT. THUS, AFTER A LULL THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AND TOTALS WILL ADD UP
VERY QUICKLY. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATION
TO SEE A 10+ INCH RAIN TOTAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS, NO PLACE IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CAN HANDLE THIS TYPE OF
EXTREME RAINFALL WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
OVERALL, THE CONVECTIVE TREND FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS DOWN, AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST AND DISSIPATES AND THE MCVS EVENTUALLY
STOP ACTING AS A FOCUS. STILL, PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. AFTER THAT, MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN 4 SITES AFTER 09Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 18 KNOTS, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, BY LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 70 87 72 / 80 70 50 10
SAN ANGELO 83 68 85 70 / 60 80 50 10
JUNCTION 85 69 86 70 / 60 70 20 10
BROWNWOOD 84 70 87 71 / 70 50 20 10
SWEETWATER 81 68 85 70 / 90 70 70 10
OZONA 82 67 83 69 / 70 90 60 10
BRADY 82 68 85 70 / 60 60 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-FISHER-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-
RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...DANIELS
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