006
FXUS64 KSJT 170433
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
ROBY TO ABILENE TO BROWNWOOD LINE, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY,
HEARTLAND, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MAY HAVE EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN AND THE INGREDIENTS ARE STILL IN PLACE.
IF THE HEAVER RAINFALL DOES DEVELOP, SATURATED SOILS MEAN THAT A
HIGHER END FLASH FLOOD EVENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SAW 3-8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH A POCKET ACROSS TAYLOR AND NOLAN SEEING
5-8 INCHES WITH A STORM THAT REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY, AND THEN
ANOTHER CLUSTER THAT PRODUCED 3-7 INCHES ACROSS HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON. RAINFALL WAS SPOTTIER ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
BUT OVERALL SOILS REMAINED SATURATED IN MOST AREAS. ABUNDANT
RUNOFF HAS MEANT QUICK SPIKES ON RIVERS ON THE LLANO BASINS AND
NOW SEEING SOME RISES ON THE SAN SABA AS WELL.
MODELS TONIGHT VARY GREATLY, FROM ONES LIKE THE HRRR AND NOW THE
NEW 18Z RRFS THAT ARE PRODUCING 2-5+ INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
POINT TOTALS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU UP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND SAN ANGLO SOUTHEAST INTO THE ALREADY FLOODED HILL COUNTRY
COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS MAY EXTEND INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AS WELL,
AND GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING, WENT AHEAD AND PUSHED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE TAYLOR AND FISHER COUNTIES AS WELL.
OTHER MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER.
GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA, SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPING
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME ALTHOUGH
WEAKER MCV'S ACROSS THE AREA, THE THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT IS A REAL CONCERN. THE AIR MASS IS A LITTLE
WORKED OVER AND THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS SO FAR KEPT
THE JUICIEST MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT BACK THIS FAR NORTHWEST TODAY
BUT THE CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND THERE SHOULD BE A
RETURN SURGE LATER TONIGHT. THUS, AFTER A LULL THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AND TOTALS WILL ADD UP
VERY QUICKLY. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATION
TO SEE A 10+ INCH RAIN TOTAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS, NO PLACE IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CAN HANDLE THIS TYPE OF
EXTREME RAINFALL WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ON SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NEW MEXICO. WITH WEAK LIFT AND REMAINING MOISTURE EAST OF THIS
LOW, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY WEST OF A HASKELL-BALLINGER-SONORA LINE). A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WEST OF A ROBERT LEE-SAN ANGELO-OZONA LINE. WITH A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES (MORE TYPICAL OF MID-
SUMMER) ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY, AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
MIDWEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 IN THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO THE MID 90S IN THE BIG COUNTRY. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 DEGREES IN THE BIG
COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN 4 SITES AFTER 09Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 18 KNOTS, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, BY LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 70 87 72 / 80 70 50 10
SAN ANGELO 83 68 85 70 / 60 80 50 10
JUNCTION 85 69 86 70 / 60 70 20 10
BROWNWOOD 84 70 87 71 / 70 50 20 10
SWEETWATER 81 68 85 70 / 90 70 70 10
OZONA 82 67 83 69 / 70 90 60 10
BRADY 82 68 85 70 / 60 60 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-FISHER-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-
RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...DANIELS
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