134
FXUS64 KSJT 171149
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
649 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
ROBY TO ABILENE TO BROWNWOOD LINE, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY,
HEARTLAND, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH
THIS MORNING. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES OR
HIGHER, SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE BIG COUNTRY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP, BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
SEE TRAINING OF CELLS WITH HIGH RAIN TOTALS. THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMALS, IN THE MID 80S. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH
THIS MORNING. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES OR
HIGHER, SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE BIG COUNTRY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP, BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
SEE TRAINING OF CELLS WITH HIGH RAIN TOTALS. THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMALS, IN THE MID 80S. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ON SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NEW MEXICO. WITH WEAK LIFT AND REMAINING MOISTURE EAST OF THIS
LOW, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY WEST OF A HASKELL-BALLINGER-SONORA LINE). A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WEST OF A ROBERT LEE-SAN ANGELO-OZONA LINE. WITH A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES (MORE TYPICAL OF MID-
SUMMER) ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY, AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
MIDWEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 IN THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO THE MID 90S IN THE BIG COUNTRY. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, TO THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 DEGREES IN THE BIG
COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING, BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH HAS ALREADY, AND MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN REDUCED
VSBYS AND FLOODING CONCERNS AT THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS
LIKELY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUST WITH STRONGER STORM CORES. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON, WHERE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10-20G25KTS BEFORE
WINDS CALM TO LESS THAN 15KTS BY THE EVENING TIME-FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN ANGELO MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
JUNCTION MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
BROWNWOOD MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
SWEETWATER MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
OZONA MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
BRADY MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...99
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