319
FXUS64 KSJT 171919
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
ROBY TO ABILENE TO BROWNWOOD LINE, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY,
HEARTLAND, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY (AS OF 2:15 PM CDT) SHOWS A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WE STILL EXPECT POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN A
CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CROCKETT,
SUTTON, AND SCHLEICHER COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR
2-4" MAY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY ENDS. WITH ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS, RUNOFF FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR VERY
QUICKLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE THE
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS RIVERS, CREEKS,
AND STREAMS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
COMPLETELY DRAIN ALL OF THE FLOOD WATERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
FLOWING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLY TERRAIN ON, OR NEAR, THE I-10
CORRIDOR. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A LOW CHANCE (30%) OF AN ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THIS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE
ACROSS AREAS TO THE WEST OF A HASKELL TO ROBERT LEE LINE. THEN FOR
SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THOSE SAME LOCATIONS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE A RETURN ACROSS
THE REGION. HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE
UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE
BROADER AREA OF RAIN AT TIMES. REDUCED VISIBILITY, GUSTY WINDS,
AND MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 72 90 72 93 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 71 89 70 91 / 10 10 0 10
JUNCTION 71 89 71 90 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 71 90 72 92 / 10 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 70 90 71 92 / 10 20 10 10
OZONA 69 86 70 87 / 10 10 10 0
BRADY 70 88 70 90 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-
RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...41
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