108
FXUS64 KSJT 210515
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HEAT INDICES MAY REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE
SLOWLY WEST OF EL PASO, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FOCUSED
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA, THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN NORTHWESTERN
CROCKETT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WARMING TREND
IS UNDERWAY FOR OUR AREA. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE 70-75 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST LOWS IN THE BIG COUNTRY. A
FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR TUESDAY,
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, TO 100-103 DEGREES IN MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AND OUR DOMINANT
WEATHER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THIS HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
PER THE FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
PATTERN, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO THE HOTTEST DAY IN OUR AREA. AT THIS
TIME, FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S/100 IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, TO 101-105 DEGREES IN THE BIG COUNTRY. WE ARE MONITORING
FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A HEAT ADVISORY IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST ACTUAL HIGHS WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN SOME OF THE BIG COUNTRY, AND FORECAST HEAT INDICES COULD REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME OF OUR EAST-CENTRAL (HEARTLAND) AND
SOUTHEASTERN (NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY) COUNTIES.
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND SOME
OF OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY COULD HAVE HIGHS AT OR NEAR THE LOW-
END THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORY DURING THAT TIME. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF,
WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST, AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 95 74 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 94 71 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 94 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 95 72 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 94 73 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 90 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 94 71 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...DANIELS
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