004
FXUS64 KSJT 020505
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. LOW
CHANCE (15-25%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME OF THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
DUE TO DRY VEGETATION AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SPREAD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS MOVING
ONSHORE IN THE HOUSTON AREA. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
LITTLE EFFECT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S, AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. SHOULD ABILENE REACH 100 DEGREES TODAY,
THAT WILL BE 31 DAYS IN A ROW OF REACHING AT LEAST 100 DEGREES,
SETTING A NEW RECORD. WITH HIGHS OF AT LEAST 100 DEGREES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, ABILENE WILL ONLY ADD TO THAT RECORD THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
HE WEAK MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF EDOARD (WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT)
WILL MEANDER OVER THE PORTION OF TEXAS MOSTLY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I- 20 ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THAT
AREA. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS, THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. AT
THIS TIME, LEANING ON A SCENARIO WHERE THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF A
BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION HAS A LOW CHANCE (15-25 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
(HEARTLAND) COUNTIES, AND 100-104 ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG
COUNTRY. THESE WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY (SEPTEMBER
3) WHICH ARE 104 FOR SAN ANGELO (SET IN 2000) AND 105 FOR ABILENE
(SET IN 2023). WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES BUT STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL BECOME RECENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH IS THEN
PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO MONTANA. WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 101 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 100 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 99 73 100 71 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 99 73 100 72 / 0 0 10 10
SWEETWATER 102 77 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 97 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 98 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...41
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