504
FXUS64 KSJT 021758
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1258 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME OF
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
DUE TO DRY VEGETATION AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE SITTING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL LARGELY RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO 103 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) INDICATE
SOME VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS LARGELY PUT THIS ACTIVITY OFF TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, WHICH WOULD BE EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO
JUNCTION LINE. CHANCES ARE LOW, HOWEVER, AT LESS THAN 20%. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
HE WEAK MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF EDOARD (WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT)
WILL MEANDER OVER THE PORTION OF TEXAS MOSTLY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I- 20 ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THAT
AREA. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS, THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. AT
THIS TIME, LEANING ON A SCENARIO WHERE THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF A
BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION HAS A LOW CHANCE (15-25 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
(HEARTLAND) COUNTIES, AND 100-104 ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG
COUNTRY. THESE WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY (SEPTEMBER
3) WHICH ARE 104 FOR SAN ANGELO (SET IN 2000) AND 105 FOR ABILENE
(SET IN 2023). WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES BUT STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL BECOME RECENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH IS THEN
PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO MONTANA. WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 77 104 78 101 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 73 101 72 99 / 0 0 0 20
BROWNWOOD 73 101 73 97 / 10 10 20 20
SWEETWATER 77 104 79 103 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 73 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 10
BRADY 74 100 73 96 / 0 10 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24
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