205
FXUS64 KSJT 080551
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1251 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE LIGHTNING MAY ALSO SPARK
ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW OR
NONEXISTENT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO SONORA LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S,
ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE BIG COUNTRY MAY ONLY FALL TO 80
DEGREES. TOMORROW, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERALL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW AS IF WE DO SEE ANY HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT 105, THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED NORTH OF I-20.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US GENERALLY REMAINS
IN CONTROL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE (OR SOMETHING MORE LIKE AN INVERTED TROUGH)
BRINGS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODEL BLENDS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CAMS LIKE THE RRFS AND THE HRRR ARE MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS. GIVEN THAT WE HAVE
SEEN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS,
SEEING AT LEAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SEEMS
PERFECTLY REASONABLE. WILL ADD ISOLATED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT, AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TRIES TO
SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BLENDS PICK UP ON THIS BOUNDARY ACTING AS A
FOCUS AND BOOST POPS INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. WILL LEAVE THIS AS IS
FOR NOW.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO PLACE AFTER THAT AND HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK IS A BIGGER QUESTION, WITH SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. NOT
SURE I BELIEVE THIS YET, GIVEN HOW STRONGLY THESE RIDGES LIKE TO
HANG ON. BUT NOT GOING TO ARGUE WITH THE BLENDS BRINGING HIGHS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 90S BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 21-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS WAS LOW SO THIS WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 99 74 99 74 / 10 0 10 10
JUNCTION 98 72 97 71 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNWOOD 98 73 97 72 / 0 0 10 10
SWEETWATER 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 96 72 96 72 / 0 0 10 10
BRADY 96 73 95 72 / 0 0 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SK
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