253
FXUS64 KSJT 082336
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
636 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) HAVE A FEW VERY
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE. CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
(<20%) GIVEN THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO 102 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES (WHAT IT FEELS LIKE OUTSIDE) WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 104 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON BOTH OF
THESE DAYS AS A RESULT. THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME TO SEE RAIN AS THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-40%) IN
PLACE. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 40 MPH) AND LIGHTNING ARE
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THEN, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THE HEAT
MAKES A RETURN TO THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 104 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. OVERALL, THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE AREA HAS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL
BASED CUMULUS FIELD (OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING) WILL
DISSIPATE A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING, AND REDEVELOP AROUND IN THE
MIDDAY TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY. THE AREA TAF SITES HAVE SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT TO
LOSE THE GUSTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-9 KNOTS, AND BECOME LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT
OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 7-10 KNOTS FROM MID/LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 21Z, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM WEDNESDAY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS (MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
HASKELL TO ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA). THIS WOULD BRING A
CONDITIONAL POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN (WITH ACCOMPANYING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS) WHERE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT OUR TAF SITES, BUT
WILL MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA AND TRENDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 78 100 77 98 / 0 20 10 40
SAN ANGELO 75 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 30
JUNCTION 72 97 71 96 / 0 20 20 30
BROWNWOOD 74 98 72 97 / 0 20 10 30
SWEETWATER 78 100 77 98 / 0 10 10 40
OZONA 72 96 72 95 / 0 0 10 10
BRADY 73 96 72 95 / 0 20 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...19
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