648
FXUS64 KSJT 082337 CCA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
636 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) HAVE A FEW VERY
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE. CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
(<20%) GIVEN THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO 102 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES (WHAT IT FEELS LIKE OUTSIDE) WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 104 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON BOTH OF
THESE DAYS AS A RESULT. THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME TO SEE RAIN AS THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-40%) IN
PLACE. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 40 MPH) AND LIGHTNING ARE
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THEN, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THE HEAT
MAKES A RETURN TO THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 104 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. OVERALL, THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL BASED
CUMULUS FIELD (OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING) WILL DISSIPATE A
LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING, AND REDEVELOP AROUND IN THE MIDDAY TIME
FRAME WEDNESDAY. THE AREA TAF SITES HAVE SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT TO LOSE THE GUSTS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-9 KNOTS, AND BECOME LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 7-10
KNOTS FROM MID/LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY 21Z, WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
7 PM WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS (MOSTLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM HASKELL TO ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA).
THIS WOULD BRING A CONDITIONAL POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN (WITH ACCOMPANYING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS) WHERE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT OUR
TAF SITES, BUT WILL MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA AND TRENDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 78 100 77 98 / 0 20 10 40
SAN ANGELO 75 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 30
JUNCTION 72 97 71 96 / 0 20 20 30
BROWNWOOD 74 98 72 97 / 0 20 10 30
SWEETWATER 78 100 77 98 / 0 10 10 40
OZONA 72 96 72 95 / 0 0 10 10
BRADY 73 96 72 95 / 0 20 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...19
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