490
FXUS64 KSJT 090443
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1143 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) HAVE A FEW VERY
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE. CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
(<20%) GIVEN THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO 102 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES (WHAT IT FEELS LIKE OUTSIDE) WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 104 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US IS
FORECASTED TO SPLIT ACROSS TEXAS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS OKLAHOMA
ON THURSDAY, LIKELY REACHING THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS THE FOCUS FROM THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY, RRFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION, WITH OTHER CAMS SHOWING SOME BUT NOT AS MUCH, DOWN TO
THE NAMNEST WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE. MODEL BLENDS ARE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SHOWING BES CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT, AND SMALLEST CHANCES
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WILL STICK WITH THIS FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE
CAMS CAN COALESCE AROUND A CONSENSUS FORECAST. BIGGEST CONCERN OUT
OF ANY OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE THE LIGHTNING THREAT. HAS NOT
TAKEN MUCH LIGHTNING LATELY TO GET MULTIPLE WILDFIRES STARTED, AND
THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY BE ABLE
TO KEEP READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER, BUT FRONT IS NOW GOING TO
BRING ANY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. SO HIGHS NEAR THE 100 DEGREE
MARK STILL LOOK LIKELY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS SLIGHTLY TO COVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR A LITTLE WEAKER
AND NOT DIRECTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
HOT AND FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DON'T SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY, THE DRY SOIL ALONE WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. THERE KEEPS BEING SOME SUGGESTION IN THE ENSEMBLES THAT THE
RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SETTLE INTO A MORE FALL TYPE OF
PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE MONTH, BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF
THAT BEFORE MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL BASED
CUMULUS FIELD (OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING) WILL DISSIPATE A
LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING, AND REDEVELOP AROUND IN THE MIDDAY TIME
FRAME WEDNESDAY. THE AREA TAF SITES HAVE SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT TO LOSE THE GUSTS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-9 KNOTS, AND BECOME LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 7-10
KNOTS FROM MID/LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY 21Z, WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
7 PM WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS (MOSTLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM HASKELL TO ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA).
THIS WOULD BRING A CONDITIONAL POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN (WITH ACCOMPANYING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS) WHERE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT OUR
TAF SITES, BUT WILL MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA AND TRENDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 100 78 99 77 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 99 75 99 73 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 98 72 97 71 / 0 0 20 10
BROWNWOOD 98 74 98 72 / 0 0 20 20
SWEETWATER 100 78 100 76 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 96 72 96 72 / 0 0 10 10
BRADY 96 73 96 72 / 0 0 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page