635
FXUS64 KSJT 091100
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. ONE DIFFERENCE FOR
TODAY IS THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD ROLL IN FROM EAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
RIDGE. THE HOT TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH MID-60S DEWPOINTS,
SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AS A RESULT,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOW ~1000 J/KG OF DCAPE AND PWATS
OF 1.50 INCHES SO ANY STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 10PM, FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US IS
FORECASTED TO SPLIT ACROSS TEXAS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS OKLAHOMA
ON THURSDAY, LIKELY REACHING THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS THE FOCUS FROM THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY, RRFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION, WITH OTHER CAMS SHOWING SOME BUT NOT AS MUCH, DOWN TO
THE NAMNEST WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE. MODEL BLENDS ARE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SHOWING BES CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT, AND SMALLEST CHANCES
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WILL STICK WITH THIS FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE
CAMS CAN COALESCE AROUND A CONSENSUS FORECAST. BIGGEST CONCERN OUT
OF ANY OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE THE LIGHTNING THREAT. HAS NOT
TAKEN MUCH LIGHTNING LATELY TO GET MULTIPLE WILDFIRES STARTED, AND
THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY BE ABLE
TO KEEP READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER, BUT FRONT IS NOW GOING TO
BRING ANY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. SO HIGHS NEAR THE 100 DEGREE
MARK STILL LOOK LIKELY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS SLIGHTLY TO COVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR A LITTLE WEAKER
AND NOT DIRECTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
HOT AND FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DON'T SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY, THE DRY SOIL ALONE WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. THERE KEEPS BEING SOME SUGGESTION IN THE ENSEMBLES THAT THE
RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SETTLE INTO A MORE FALL TYPE OF
PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE MONTH, BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF
THAT BEFORE MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL
INCREASE TO 8-10KT AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-03Z THAT COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS BUT THESE WERE LEFT OUT OF MOST TAF SITES DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 99 77 98 76 / 10 10 50 10
SAN ANGELO 99 73 98 72 / 10 10 20 10
JUNCTION 97 71 96 70 / 20 10 20 10
BROWNWOOD 98 72 97 71 / 20 20 30 10
SWEETWATER 100 76 98 75 / 10 10 40 10
OZONA 96 72 95 71 / 10 10 10 10
BRADY 96 72 95 71 / 20 10 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SK
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