193
FXUS64 KSJT 091700
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. ONE DIFFERENCE FOR
TODAY IS THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD ROLL IN FROM EAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
RIDGE. THE HOT TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH MID-60S DEWPOINTS,
SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AS A RESULT,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOW ~1000 J/KG OF DCAPE AND PWATS
OF 1.50 INCHES SO ANY STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 10PM, FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US IS
FORECASTED TO SPLIT ACROSS TEXAS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS OKLAHOMA
ON THURSDAY, LIKELY REACHING THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS THE FOCUS FROM THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY, RRFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION, WITH OTHER CAMS SHOWING SOME BUT NOT AS MUCH, DOWN TO
THE NAMNEST WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE. MODEL BLENDS ARE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SHOWING BES CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT, AND SMALLEST CHANCES
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WILL STICK WITH THIS FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE
CAMS CAN COALESCE AROUND A CONSENSUS FORECAST. BIGGEST CONCERN OUT
OF ANY OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE THE LIGHTNING THREAT. HAS NOT
TAKEN MUCH LIGHTNING LATELY TO GET MULTIPLE WILDFIRES STARTED, AND
THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY BE ABLE
TO KEEP READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER, BUT FRONT IS NOW GOING TO
BRING ANY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. SO HIGHS NEAR THE 100 DEGREE
MARK STILL LOOK LIKELY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS SLIGHTLY TO COVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR A LITTLE WEAKER
AND NOT DIRECTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
HOT AND FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DON'T SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY, THE DRY SOIL ALONE WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. THERE KEEPS BEING SOME SUGGESTION IN THE ENSEMBLES THAT THE
RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SETTLE INTO A MORE FALL TYPE OF
PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE MONTH, BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE OF
THAT BEFORE MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12
MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PROB 30 GROUPS FOR THUNDER WERE
INCLUDED AT KABI AND KJCT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT
A THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 77 99 76 100 / 10 40 40 0
SAN ANGELO 73 98 73 100 / 10 10 20 0
JUNCTION 71 96 71 98 / 10 20 10 0
BROWNWOOD 72 97 72 99 / 10 10 20 10
SWEETWATER 76 99 76 101 / 10 30 40 0
OZONA 72 96 72 97 / 0 10 10 0
BRADY 72 95 72 97 / 10 20 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...DANIELS
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