602
FXUS64 KSJT 091916
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
216 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY (AS OF 145 PM CDT) SHOWS
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A HASKELL TO JUNCTION
LINE. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A LOW
CHANCE (20%) FOR RAIN WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THIS
ACTIVITY. SOME MINOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S TO 102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW, THE HIGH PRESSURE RELAXES SOME AND
COMBINES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 TO 50% FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A
SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE. MANY OF THESE AREAS ARE OUTLOOKED IN
A MARGINAL RISK (5 TO 15% CHANCE) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FOR FRIDAY ONWARD, HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO REINFORCE ITSELF ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL START THE RETURN OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 104 DEGREES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR RAIN. THIS REMAINS
RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12
MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PROB 30 GROUPS FOR THUNDER WERE
INCLUDED AT KABI AND KJCT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT
A THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 77 99 76 100 / 10 40 40 0
SAN ANGELO 73 98 73 100 / 10 10 20 0
JUNCTION 71 96 71 98 / 10 20 10 0
BROWNWOOD 72 97 72 99 / 10 20 30 10
SWEETWATER 76 99 76 101 / 10 30 30 0
OZONA 72 96 72 97 / 0 10 10 0
BRADY 72 95 72 97 / 10 20 20 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DANIELS
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