062
FXUS64 KSJT 100532
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1232 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY (AS OF 145 PM CDT) SHOWS
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A HASKELL TO JUNCTION
LINE. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A LOW
CHANCE (20%) FOR RAIN WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THIS
ACTIVITY. SOME MINOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S TO 102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW, THE HIGH PRESSURE RELAXES SOME AND
COMBINES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 TO 50% FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A
SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE. MANY OF THESE AREAS ARE OUTLOOKED IN
A MARGINAL RISK (5 TO 15% CHANCE) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FRIDAY MORNING, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL START JUST EAST OF US,
AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THAT TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THAT TROUGH, SO HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW (20%- 30%) CHANCES FOR THIS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY, AS WELL AS
PUSH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM WON'T HAVE ANY DIRECT EFFECT ON OUR AREA, IT WILL HELP
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGING IN OUR AREA SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ABILENE AND SWEETWATER BY 21Z, BUT COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 18Z. THUS, A PROB30 GROUP WAS INTRODUCED AT ABI STARTING
AT 21Z, BUT COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER TAFS. LOWER (<15%) CHANCES
FOR STORMS EXIST FOR SOUTHERN SITES, BUT THIS WAS LEFT OUT DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. STORM CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 99 75 100 77 / 50 20 10 0
SAN ANGELO 98 73 100 74 / 20 10 0 0
JUNCTION 96 71 98 71 / 30 10 10 0
BROWNWOOD 97 71 98 72 / 20 20 10 0
SWEETWATER 99 75 100 77 / 40 30 10 0
OZONA 96 71 97 72 / 0 20 0 0
BRADY 95 72 96 72 / 20 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SK
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