247
FXUS64 KSJT 101731
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1231 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
TODAY AS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL NUDGE SOUTHWARD.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S AGAIN JUST BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH WARM, MOIST AIR THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT NORTH OF I-20. FURTHER
SOUTH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CONCHO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED, SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS THAT DEVELOP. PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. AS A RESULT, STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT, WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY, AND HEARTLAND.
SOME STORMS COULD LINGER AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FRIDAY MORNING, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL START JUST EAST OF US,
AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THAT TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THAT TROUGH, SO HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW (20%- 30%) CHANCES FOR THIS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY, AS WELL AS
PUSH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM WON'T HAVE ANY DIRECT EFFECT ON OUR AREA, IT WILL HELP
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGING IN OUR AREA SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TSRA TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT KABI, SO HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP
GOING THERE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED TSRA AT ANY OTHER SITES JUST YET,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE, BUT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE ANY TSRA WOULD BE KSJT AND KBBD. OTHERWISE,
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 100 77 103 / 30 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 100 74 102 / 30 10 0 0
JUNCTION 71 99 72 100 / 20 10 0 10
BROWNWOOD 71 99 72 101 / 30 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 101 77 104 / 30 10 0 0
OZONA 72 98 73 99 / 10 0 10 0
BRADY 72 97 72 99 / 20 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...20
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