969
FXUS64 KSJT 101800
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
100 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CURRENTLY, WE HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES ALONG A SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHILE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. SHORT TERM CAMS HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF
THIS SCENARIO WITH THE RRFS BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON, SO WHILE WE'RE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, WE DO ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS AND INCREASING COVERAGE WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED/SPORADIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. MOST MODELS END THE
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DO EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO END BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FRIDAY MORNING, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL START JUST EAST OF US,
AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THAT TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THAT TROUGH, SO HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW (20%- 30%) CHANCES FOR THIS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY, AS WELL AS
PUSH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM WON'T HAVE ANY DIRECT EFFECT ON OUR AREA, IT WILL HELP
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGING IN OUR AREA SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TSRA TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT KABI, SO HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP
GOING THERE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED TSRA AT ANY OTHER SITES JUST YET,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE, BUT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE ANY TSRA WOULD BE KSJT AND KBBD. OTHERWISE,
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 100 77 103 / 30 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 100 74 102 / 30 10 0 0
JUNCTION 71 99 72 100 / 20 10 0 10
BROWNWOOD 71 99 72 101 / 30 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 75 101 77 104 / 30 10 0 0
OZONA 72 98 73 99 / 10 0 10 0
BRADY 72 97 72 99 / 20 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...20
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