934
FXUS64 KSJT 150601
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA.
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A MARGINAL TO MODERATE
RISK FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE INFLUX ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, PW
(PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TO BE "EFFICIENT" RAIN PRODUCERS, WHICH CAN CAUSE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AND A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
A CROSS PLAINS TO SONORA LINE. A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WAS RECENTLY ADDED FOR DAY 2 (THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING) FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AS OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, WE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO UPPER 80S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, LEAVING BEHIND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND
IT. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 20-30 MPH ON FRIDAY. AT THIS
POINT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FOR WINDS EXCEEDING
30 MPH AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT COULD FEEL A BIT
COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS
SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNINGS COULD
BE QUITE COOL AS THEY LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 40. THIS WOULD BE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MID-APRIL!
THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND INTO THE 80S
ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF WEST TEXAS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS STILL EXIST ON THIS FEATURE SO FOR
NOW, LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
INITIALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY. THESE WILL AFFECT KABI
07Z-10Z WITH VISIBILITY/CEILING REDUCTIONS IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE POST-MIDNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL AFFECT OUR TAF SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUD
COVER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 3000FT BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON, VFR-BASED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AT KBBD AND KJCT.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, EXPANSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR (ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR AREA) WITH THE
ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE
CONVECTION. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS 21Z AT KABI, 00Z AT
KSJT, AND 03Z AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KSOA AND KJCT). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST,
AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 83 54 62 43 / 90 90 0 0
SAN ANGELO 83 51 62 40 / 90 90 10 0
JUNCTION 86 53 65 42 / 10 80 10 0
BROWNWOOD 88 53 64 42 / 40 80 10 0
SWEETWATER 78 52 60 41 / 90 70 0 0
OZONA 81 51 60 40 / 80 100 20 0
BRADY 88 53 63 42 / 30 80 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-
NOLAN-RUNNELS-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-
THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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