242
FXUS64 KSJT 150701
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
201 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS
OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA.
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A MARGINAL TO MODERATE
RISK FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN THE BIG COUNTRY DURING
THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. OUR AREA SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVE LULL
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO WILL
OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GET ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED WITH A SURFACE FOCUS FOR
LIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT, WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE (AND FOCUSED)
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
THE AREA WHICH HAS A FLOOD WATCH (ALL OF BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY
AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND EAST TO COLEMAN AND CONCHO
COUNTIES). EFFICIENT RAINFALL FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS IN THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO (CROCKETT COUNTY AND
SURROUNDING AREA), WHERE LONGER DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED.
TIMING FOR THE MORE FOCUSED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY, LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND THIS EVENING (FROM
5 OR 6 PM) TO MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IN GENERAL, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA,
WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. PLEASE SEE THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION (DAY 1) FOR MORE
DETAILS AND ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA, TO THE UPPER 80S IN OUR FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (BROWNWOOD, BRADY, SAN SABA AND MASON
COUNTIES). AFTER THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCREASED AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, LEAVING BEHIND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND
IT. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 20-30 MPH ON FRIDAY. AT THIS
POINT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FOR WINDS EXCEEDING
30 MPH AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT COULD FEEL A BIT
COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS
SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNINGS COULD
BE QUITE COOL AS THEY LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 40. THIS WOULD BE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MID-APRIL!
THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND INTO THE 80S
ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF WEST TEXAS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS STILL EXIST ON THIS FEATURE SO FOR
NOW, LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
INITIALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY. THESE WILL AFFECT KABI
07Z-10Z WITH VISIBILITY/CEILING REDUCTIONS IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE POST-MIDNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL AFFECT OUR TAF SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUD
COVER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 3000FT BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON, VFR-BASED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AT KBBD AND KJCT.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, EXPANSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR (ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR AREA) WITH THE
ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE
CONVECTION. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS 21Z AT KABI, 00Z AT
KSJT, AND 03Z AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KSOA AND KJCT). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST,
AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 83 54 62 43 / 90 90 0 0
SAN ANGELO 83 51 62 40 / 90 90 10 0
JUNCTION 86 53 65 42 / 10 80 10 0
BROWNWOOD 88 53 64 42 / 40 80 10 0
SWEETWATER 78 52 60 41 / 90 70 0 0
OZONA 81 51 60 40 / 80 100 20 0
BRADY 88 53 63 42 / 30 80 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-
TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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