741
FXUS64 KSJT 151128
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT (1 PM
TODAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY) FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY
AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, ALONG WITH COLEMAN AND CONCHO
COUNTIES. FOCUSED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
CROCKETT COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IRION, FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TOM GREEN, AND WESTERN PARTS OF SCHLEICHER AND
SUTTON COUNTIES. SURROUNDING THIS MODERATE RISK AREA IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. SOME LOW-LYING AREAS MAY HAVE
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN THE BIG COUNTRY DURING
THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. OUR AREA SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVE LULL
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL GET ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED WITH A SURFACE FOCUS WITH
THE COLD FRONT, WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE (AND FOCUSED) DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE AREA
WHICH HAS A FLOOD WATCH (ALL OF BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND EAST TO COLEMAN AND CONCHO COUNTIES).
EFFICIENT RAINFALL FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS IN THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO (CROCKETT COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREA), WHERE LONGER DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED.
TIMING FOR THE MORE FOCUSED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE BIG COUNTRY, LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND THIS EVENING (FROM
5 OR 6 PM) TO MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IN GENERAL, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA,
WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. PLEASE SEE THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION (DAY 1) FOR MORE
DETAILS AND ON THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA, TO THE UPPER 80S IN OUR FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (BROWN, MCCULLOCH, SAN SABA AND MASON
COUNTIES). AFTER THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCREASED AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE BIG
COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, LEAVING BEHIND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS. A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND
IT. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 20-30 MPH ON FRIDAY. AT THIS
POINT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FOR WINDS EXCEEDING
30 MPH AT SOME POINT ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT COULD FEEL A BIT
COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS
SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNINGS COULD
BE QUITE COOL AS THEY LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 40. THIS WOULD BE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MID-APRIL!
THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND INTO THE 80S
ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF WEST TEXAS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS STILL EXIST ON THIS FEATURE SO FOR
NOW, LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS AFFECTING OUR TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CEILINGS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE 3000FT BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THIS AFTERNOON, VFR-BASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AT KBBD AND KJCT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, EXPANSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR (ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR AREA) WITH THE
ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING
THE CONVECTION. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS 21Z AT KABI, 00Z
AT KSJT, AND 03Z AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KSOA AND KJCT). WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST,
AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUD COVER
WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 83 54 62 43 / 90 90 0 0
SAN ANGELO 83 51 62 40 / 90 90 10 0
JUNCTION 86 53 65 42 / 10 80 10 0
BROWNWOOD 88 53 64 42 / 40 80 10 0
SWEETWATER 78 52 60 41 / 90 70 0 0
OZONA 81 51 60 40 / 80 100 20 0
BRADY 88 53 63 42 / 30 80 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-
TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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