677
FXUS64 KSJT 151851
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
151 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT (1 PM TODAY TO 7 AM
FRIDAY) FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND COLEMAN COUNTY. FOCUSED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. SURROUNDING THIS MODERATE RISK
AREA IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LOW-LYING AREAS MAY HAVE MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS AIRMASS BRINGS
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO THE AREA TODAY,
MAKING FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THESE SYSTEMS BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY, NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS, AND THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL STARTS IMPACTING AREAS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
THAT SAID, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS, AND STAY TUNED TO OUR FORECAST FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
ON THIS EVENT.
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED TODAY BY WPC IN A MODERATE
TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU BEING THE FOCUS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN GENERAL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DISCUSSION (DAY 1) FOR MORE DETAILS AND ON THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AFTER THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCREASED AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 1 AM TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS. AS FOR THE
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 50S,
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO STRUGGLE SURPASSING THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS HELPED CAUSE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, LEAVING BEHIND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS TEXAS. COLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND COOLER AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WINDS CAN ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNINGS COULD BE QUITE COOL AS THEY LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. APPARENT TEMPERATURES CAN DROP
INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, WHICH BRINGS US CLOSE TO FREEZING IN
SOME LOW- LYING AREAS. THIS WOULD BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MID-APRIL!
THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS STILL EXIST ON
THIS FEATURE SO FOR NOW, LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ALL TAF SITES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW CEILINGS AND/OR LOWERED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER THE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH BUT LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE STORMS, NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20
TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 53 60 42 61 / 100 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 54 61 40 61 / 100 10 0 0
JUNCTION 56 63 41 63 / 90 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 54 62 42 63 / 80 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 51 58 40 60 / 90 0 0 0
OZONA 53 59 40 59 / 100 20 0 0
BRADY 54 61 41 61 / 90 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...20
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