989
FXUS64 KSJT 152304
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
604 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT (1 PM TODAY TO 7 AM
FRIDAY) FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND COLEMAN COUNTY. FOCUSED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. SURROUNDING THIS MODERATE RISK
AREA IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LOW-LYING AREAS MAY HAVE MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS AIRMASS BRINGS
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO THE AREA TODAY,
MAKING FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THESE SYSTEMS BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY, NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND. THE FLOOD
WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS, AND THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT FLASH FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTS IMPACTING AREAS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THAT SAID, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, AND STAY TUNED TO OUR FORECAST
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED TODAY BY WPC IN A
MODERATE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU BEING THE FOCUS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION (DAY 1) FOR MORE DETAILS AND ON THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AFTER THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCREASED
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 1 AM TO 7 PM FRIDAY
FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS. AS FOR THE
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 50S,
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO STRUGGLE SURPASSING THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS HELPED CAUSE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, LEAVING BEHIND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS TEXAS. COLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND COOLER AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WINDS CAN ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNINGS COULD BE QUITE COOL AS THEY LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. APPARENT TEMPERATURES CAN DROP
INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, WHICH BRINGS US CLOSE TO FREEZING IN
SOME LOW- LYING AREAS. THIS WOULD BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MID-APRIL!
THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS STILL EXIST ON
THIS FEATURE SO FOR NOW, LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENTLY, THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KABI, SOUTH TO KSOA, MOVING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. EXPECT KBBD
AND KJCT TO SEE TSRA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ALL SITES COULD
HAVE LINGERING SHRA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS HAVE
ALREADY MOVED INTO KABI AND KSJT, AND WILL LIKELY BE AT KBBD AND
KSOA BY 00Z OR 01Z, AND THEN KJCT BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE DAY TOMORROW WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ALL DAY. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT MOST SITES, BUT KABI COULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 53 60 42 61 / 100 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 54 61 40 61 / 100 10 0 0
JUNCTION 56 63 41 63 / 90 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 54 62 42 63 / 80 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 51 58 40 60 / 90 0 0 0
OZONA 53 59 40 59 / 100 20 0 0
BRADY 54 61 41 61 / 90 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...20
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