990
FXUS64 KSJT 160437
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT (1 PM TODAY TO 7 AM
FRIDAY) FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND COLEMAN COUNTY. FOCUSED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. SURROUNDING THIS MODERATE RISK
AREA IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LOW-LYING AREAS MAY HAVE MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHS ARE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING, AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOW-LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID 30S. A LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS WHERE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS FORECAST
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN 60S TO NEAR 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A STEADY WARM UP IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY APPROACHING 80.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS HELPED CAUSE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, LEAVING BEHIND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS TEXAS. COLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND COOLER AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WINDS CAN ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNINGS COULD BE QUITE COOL AS THEY LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. APPARENT TEMPERATURES CAN DROP
INTO THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, WHICH BRINGS US CLOSE TO FREEZING IN
SOME LOW- LYING AREAS. THIS WOULD BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MID-APRIL!
THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS STILL EXIST ON
THIS FEATURE SO FOR NOW, LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENTLY, THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KABI, SOUTH TO KSOA, MOVING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. EXPECT KBBD
AND KJCT TO SEE TSRA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ALL SITES COULD
HAVE LINGERING SHRA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS HAVE
ALREADY MOVED INTO KABI AND KSJT, AND WILL LIKELY BE AT KBBD AND
KSOA BY 00Z OR 01Z, AND THEN KJCT BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE DAY TOMORROW WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ALL DAY. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT MOST SITES, BUT KABI COULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 82 53 61 42 / 100 100 0 0
SAN ANGELO 82 50 61 40 / 90 100 10 0
JUNCTION 85 52 62 41 / 20 90 30 0
BROWNWOOD 86 52 62 42 / 70 100 10 0
SWEETWATER 79 51 59 40 / 100 60 0 0
OZONA 79 50 59 40 / 90 100 30 0
BRADY 86 53 60 41 / 30 100 20 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...20
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