364
FXUS64 KSJT 160440
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT (1 PM TODAY TO 7 AM
FRIDAY) FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND COLEMAN COUNTY. FOCUSED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. SURROUNDING THIS MODERATE RISK
AREA IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LOW-LYING AREAS MAY HAVE MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS AIRMASS BRINGS
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO THE AREA TODAY,
MAKING FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THESE SYSTEMS BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY, NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS, AND THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL STARTS IMPACTING AREAS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
THAT SAID, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS, AND STAY TUNED TO OUR FORECAST FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
ON THIS EVENT.
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS OUTLOOKED TODAY BY WPC IN A MODERATE
TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU BEING THE FOCUS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN GENERAL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DISCUSSION (DAY 1) FOR MORE DETAILS AND ON THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AFTER THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCREASED AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 1 AM TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS. AS FOR THE
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE 50S,
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO STRUGGLE SURPASSING THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHS ARE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING, AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOW-LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID 30S. A LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS WHERE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS FORECAST
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN 60S TO NEAR 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A STEADY WARM UP IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY APPROACHING 80.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENTLY, THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KABI, SOUTH TO KSOA, MOVING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. EXPECT KBBD
AND KJCT TO SEE TSRA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ALL SITES COULD
HAVE LINGERING SHRA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS HAVE
ALREADY MOVED INTO KABI AND KSJT, AND WILL LIKELY BE AT KBBD AND
KSOA BY 00Z OR 01Z, AND THEN KJCT BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE DAY TOMORROW WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
ALL DAY. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT MOST SITES, BUT KABI COULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 82 53 61 42 / 100 100 0 0
SAN ANGELO 82 50 61 40 / 90 100 10 0
JUNCTION 85 52 62 41 / 20 90 30 0
BROWNWOOD 86 52 62 42 / 70 100 10 0
SWEETWATER 79 51 59 40 / 100 60 0 0
OZONA 79 50 59 40 / 90 100 30 0
BRADY 86 53 60 41 / 30 100 20 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...20
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