765
FXUS64 KSJT 160511
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LOW-LYING AREAS MAY HAVE MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- A BRIEF FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
RAINFALL RATES HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
WITH MOST OF THE MODERATE RAIN DECREASING TO JUST AT THIS POINT.
MODELS SHOW THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES PAST SUNRISE
BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
RUNS THROUGH 12Z AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO END IT EARLY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES TO WANE AND THE THREAT ENDS.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND WIND GUSTING OVER 40 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE. BOOSTED WIND
SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY, AND WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY
ALREADY IN EFFECT CONTINUE. MUCH COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THE MODELS HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
SO NOT GOING TO ARGUE WITH THE MODEL BLENDS SHOWING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA, DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY
DROP OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW READINGS TO DROP OVERNIGHT, EVEN THOUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. WET SOILS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT AS WELL. STILL, THE COOLEST
READINGS SINCE THE MIDDLE OF APRIL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHS ARE 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING, AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOW-LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID 30S. A LIGHT FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS WHERE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS FORECAST
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN 60S TO NEAR 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A STEADY WARM UP IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY APPROACHING 80.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
MAINLY END BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY DECREASING AFTER
SUNSET. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY, PERHAPS ABOVE 30
KNOTS AT TIMES. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS MORNING AND
THEN EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 61 42 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 61 40 61 37 / 10 0 0 0
JUNCTION 62 41 62 38 / 30 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 62 42 62 39 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 59 40 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 59 40 59 38 / 30 0 0 0
BRADY 60 41 60 38 / 20 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...07
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