353
FXUS64 KSJT 210512
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
IN PLACE AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO THE MID 50S. CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO A 500MB HEIGHT OF 590DAM AND BE
THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE
PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG IN ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS BOTH SLOWING DOWN AND REMAINING FURTHER
WEST OVER NEW MEXICO UNTIL SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY COMPARED TO
EARLIER FORECASTS. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD START TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THIS POINT, LOW
(<25%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT AT THIS TIME THE MODEL SPREAD OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HEAVY. AS WILL ALL WEATHER SYSTEMS 5-7
DAYS OUT, THIS POTENTIAL OUTCOME COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND WILL BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 59 85 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 56 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 53 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 56 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 59 84 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 55 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 55 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...07
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