159
FXUS64 KSJT 210600
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
100 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE WARM FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
WILL STICK CLOSER TO SOME OF THE 2M TEMPERATURES FROM THE HI
RESOLUTION MODELS. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO WARM AS WELL, AND
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE MODEL BLENDS FOR TONIGHT AS WELL,
PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE PLAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY BUT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD BY SATURDAY, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL
BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. MODEL BLENDS MAINTAIN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE RAIN CHANCES
(20%-40%) BY THIS TIME, WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, AND ADDITIONAL FORECAST CHANGES ARE
LIKELY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN
CHANCES, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 82 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 82 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 81 53 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 81 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 82 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 80 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 79 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07
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