474
FXUS64 KSJT 211656
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1156 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE WARM FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
WILL STICK CLOSER TO SOME OF THE 2M TEMPERATURES FROM THE HI
RESOLUTION MODELS. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO WARM AS WELL, AND
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE MODEL BLENDS FOR TONIGHT AS WELL,
PUTTING MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE PLAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY BUT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD BY SATURDAY, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL
BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. MODEL BLENDS MAINTAIN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE RAIN CHANCES
(20%-40%) BY THIS TIME, WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, AND ADDITIONAL FORECAST CHANGES ARE
LIKELY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN
CHANCES, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME MODEL DATA TRIES TO BRING IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 59 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 55 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 54 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 55 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 59 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 55 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 55 81 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41
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