861
FXUS65 KSLC 182303
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY, WITH A DRIER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/5AM FRIDAY)
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A DRIER, STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN, WE CAN SEE THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, WITH ITS AXIS JUST PASSING OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES OVERHEAD TOMORROW MORNING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, FLOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ENTERS NORTHWEST UTAH. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES HERE A BIT, WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS TROUGH. WHILE MODELS HAVE HONED IN A BIT ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK (THROUGH SW-UT/N-AZ), A COUPLE OF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE A LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS, QPF COULD
LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH, DESPITE
THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEE MUCH IN TERMS OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW, UNFORTUNATELY. BEHIND THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE, EXPECT A PERIOD
OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY THURSDAY, WITH
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACTUALLY TURNS MORE NORTHERLY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRIES TO
CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST. EITHER WAY, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO END
BY LATE THURSDAY AS MORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS,
THOUGH CHANCES LEAN TOWARDS SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (30-60% CHANCE). ONE OTHER KEY PIECE OF THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN TIME
FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH.
DESPITE A PERIOD OF WARM- AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY, MODEST COLD-
AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH LACK OF
SUNSHINE COULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS ENOUGH FOR MINOR VALLEY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...LIKELY AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS VALLEY FLOORS AND 1-3
INCHES FOR THE CACHE VALLEY, BENCHES, AND WASATCH BACK. STILL,
WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT SNOW LEVEL, THE FORECAST STILL
COULD TREND IN EITHER DIRECTION.
LONG TERM
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE RECENT SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR QUITE SOME TIME, AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND WILL
BRING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WITH BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAIN QUITE LIMITED, AROUND 10-20%, AS A COUPLE SOLUTIONS FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO SLIP AROUND IT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS, THIS SOLUTIONS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT ~80% OF ALL OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
KEEP US DRY. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) HAS OUR FORECAST
AREA OUTLINED FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS. AS WE APPROACH THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH, THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLES INDICATING THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN, THOUGH IT IS QUITE FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST AND RELATIVELY UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, THE CPC DOES
HAVE NORTHERN UTAH OUTLINED FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THEIR WEEKS
3-4 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, SO NOT ALL HOPE IS LOST. REGARDLESS, BE
SURE TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THOSE PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES!
AVIATION...KSLC
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 01-02Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASES AGAIN EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
SYSTEM. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL ROUGHLY AFTER 21Z WED, BRINGING A 30% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS
THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THEREAFTER, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING AFTER 03Z THU. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, THOUGH
MAINLY REMAINING ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION, BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CUNNINGHAM/WORSTER/WHITLAM
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