622
FXUS65 KSLC 202334
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
UTAH, WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/5AM SATURDAY)
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW ARE POSITIONED NEAR THE UTAH AND
COLORADO BORDER. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING MOIST, UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND
NORTHERN UTAH. FOR VALLEYS IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN
UTAH, TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 32F HAVE BROUGHT A WET,
DENSE SNOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE DAY HAS ONLY
BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WHERE A DEFORMATION BAND WAS IN PLACE IN FAR
NORTHERN UTAH AND WHERE LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WAS. VALLEY
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH EXITS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN LATE, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF IN THE
WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS LAST. ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 2-5 INCHES.
A RIDGE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH FRIDAY, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH, BUT LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5F
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/5AM SATURDAY)
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ALONGSIDE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXISTS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT OF A BROAD RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY. AS SUCH, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO PLACE
OVERHEAD. THE COMPLICATION/ UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
WILL BE SOURCED FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT'S PROGGED TO AFFECT
THE PACNW/ SOUTHERN B.C. REGION WHICH NORTHERN UTAH WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF AS THIS FEATURE PENETRATES INLAND. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON'S MODEL SUITE, ONLY 25-35% OF GUIDANCE IS IN SUPPORT OF
THE MOISTURE AXIS DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT NORTHERN UTAH IS
ABLE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
BEAR RIVER MOUNTAINS. EVEN THEN, TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0" TO 0.25" LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THE
25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE NORTHERN BEAR RIVERS, WITH 0" TO
0.08" IN THE CACHE VALLEY. GIVEN THE MILD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE, VALLEY AREAS WOULD SEE RAIN WITH
VERY HIGH DENSITY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS (UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
NORTHERN BEAR RIVERS). CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE (1 IN 10 CHANCE)
AMOUNTS STILL SITS BELOW 1 INCH SWE IN THE NORTHERN BEAR RIVERS WITH
LESS THAN 0.5" FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS.
BOTTOM LINE, THIS POTENTIAL LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY EVENT APPEARS
TO CARRY LITTLE IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN UTAH.
AFTER TUESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A
SIGNIFICANT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, THREAT OF IMPACTFUL
WEATHER.
AVIATION...KSLC
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH VIS/CIG IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED AFTER ROUGHLY 00Z
FRIDAY. SATURATED SOILS AND CLEARING SKIES MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SNOW STILL ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHERN UT/SOUTHWEST WY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THIS EVENING, WITH VIS/CIG IMPROVEMENTS INTO THE EVENING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR KLGU-KHCR AS
LIGHT WINDS, SATURATED SOILS, AND CLEARING SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ102-
103-105-107>109.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ104.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ110>113-117.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ021.
SHORT TERM...WILSON
LONG TERM...WEBBER
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page