496
FXUS65 KSLC 221115
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)
A LONGWAVE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A SMALL
RIPPLE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERRUPTING THIS MEAN RIDGE PATTERN.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS WA/OR AND EXTENDING
INTO NORCAL. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING, SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE MEAN RIDGE HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG IN
THE CACHE VALLEY, BEAR RIVER VALLEY, AND NEAR EVANSTON. THIS FOG
SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED AND GRADUALLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE,
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
TREND WARMER IN CONJUNCTION WITH H7 WARM ADVECTION, BUT REMAINING
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS IN NORTHERN UTAH, PARTICULARLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE AMPLE SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW INTO MONDAY AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION WILL
TAKE PLACE UNDER AN H7 WARM ADVECTION PATTERN, SWITCHING TO NEUTRAL
OR WEAK COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS, H7 TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND -3C, SO THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE. MAX TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AREAWIDE. THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC HAS A HIGH OF 59F AT SLC ON MONDAY, WITH A 75TH
PERCENTILE OF 65F. NOT SURE THE 65F IS THAT REALISTIC QUITE YET
GIVEN THE PATTERN, AND EVEN THE 59F MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARM DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
TRENDS DO POINT TO A QUICK WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. GIVEN
THIS AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS AND HIGH SNOW DENSITIES OWING TO THE MILD
AIRMASS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINOR.
LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z/5PM MST TUESDAY)
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE HIGHEST
ANOMALIES ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. ST. GEORGE WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE APPROACHING 79 DEGREES. SOME COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BE MUCH
DRIER SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN UTAH. EVEN THEN, POPS MAX OUT AROUND 30% ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF EXPECTED. THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING ~5
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE CHANGE
FURTHER SOUTH.
A RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR
NORTHERN UTAH WHILE STAYING IN THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FROM A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO
AREAS NEAR THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE DRY UNTIL MARCH 3RD OR 4TH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A DEEPER TROUGH ARRIVING AROUND THAT TIME WITHOUT MUCH BEFORE THEN.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE AIRSPACE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY FOG
RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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