743
FXUS65 KSLC 270953
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ONE
LAST DAY BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A COOLER AND WETTER REGIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY AS WE FIND THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS. AS THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE CENTERED TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING TO LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY
(~15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE). THE BIGGEST CHANGE-UP WITH TODAY
WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE AIRMASS DEPARTS TO THE EAST, A DEEPER TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED OFFSHORE OF THE PACNW REGION. A LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
TO KICK THIS TROUGH INTO MOTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND WILL HELP TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS ACROSS UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. IN PARTICULAR, WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH WILL SEE THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS,
WHERE SPEEDS OF UP TO 35-40 MPH ARE TO BE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MOST OTHER
AREAS IN UTAH (EXCEPT FAR NW UTAH), GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WILL
BE ON PAR.
IN ADDITION TO THE UPTICK IN WINDS, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LEADING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, INTRODUCING A FAIRLY WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO NORTHERN/ CENTRAL UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO FRIDAY. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY, HELPING TO FURTHER INCREASE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE... THUS KICKING OFF MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/ HIGH ELEVATION (7,500FT AND UP) SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE
SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST NET INFLUENCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS (IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE).
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN, HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
SIGNS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY AND TIMING OF TROUGH
PASSAGES THAT MAKE DETAILS AND SPECIFICS MORE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
THIS FAR OUT. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH A TROUGH
SATURDAY/SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FINALLY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD (THURSDAY/FRIDAY) IN ~90% OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TROUGH IS A TRAILING WAVE BEHIND THE WEAKER WAVE
THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH COLDER AIR. HOWEVER, IT MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS THIS FRONT RACES THROUGH
THE AREA, BUT AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW DOES DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION
ONGOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH H7 TEMPERATURES ~-8C MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS UNDER
HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. ALL-IN-ALL, QPF TOTALS APPEAR TO BE
FAIRLY MINOR WITH THIS FIRST STORM WITH MOST OF SOUTHERN UTAH
REMAINING DRY. VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY SEE 0.1-0.25" OF WATER WITH UP
TO 0.5" ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT DO WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW, SUCH AS THE UPPER
COTTONWOODS.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND THROUGH
MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH. JUST LOOKING AT THE GFS,
EC, AND CAN DETERMINISTICS SHOW THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM A
TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND RETREATS TO THE NORTH AS
IT APPROACHES, TO A TROUGH THAT MAKES MORE OF A DIRECT HIT ON UTAH,
AND THEN ANOTHER SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE BEST FORCING FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. REGARDLESS, H7 TEMPERATURES DROP TO ~-10C WITH
THIS STORM WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL OF SNOW REACHING
VALLEY FLOORS. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEREAS OTHERS HAVE A SHORTER DURATION.
REGARDLESS, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS
THAT COULD AMOUNT TO ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UP TO 0.5" OF QPF FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO RELOAD AND MOVE INTO THE PNW BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ALL BUT
~10% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THIS TROUGH IMPACTING THE GREAT BASIN
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS, ALBEIT LIKELY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TROUGH THAT COULD KEEP P-TYPE MORE SIMPLE IN TERMS OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LASTING MOST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEBBER / MAHAN
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