816
FXUS65 KSLC 281014
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
414 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES IN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS. A STORM PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER (POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT) COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS AN OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND. KEY POINTS OF THE UPCOMING
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY INCLUDE:
* ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
UTAH/ SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
* A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN/ CENTRAL UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING,
BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN.
* TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON
SATURDAY, WITH SLIGHT WARMING (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL) ON
SUNDAY.
AS MENTIONED, A BROAD TROUGH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY CENTERED
OFFSHORE OF THE PACNW REGION HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT INLAND AS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ACTED TO INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HELPING TO SET THE STAGE
FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND, AS WELL AS INTRODUCING A COOLER AIRMASS.
TODAY, ANOTHER EJECTING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH, KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH, AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. IN GENERAL, WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH (~7,500FT AND ABOVE) AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL NOT
BE HIGH. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION,
WE'LL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ~10-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY
(NEAR SEASONAL). THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH, WHERE CONTINUED BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY, A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF ENERGY
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN REGION, BRINGING A MORE STOUT
COLD FRONT AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS (PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH).
TEMPERATURES STILL WON'T BE QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR SNOWFALL TO
THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS (I.E. WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE),
HOWEVER, AREAS ON THE WASATCH BACK MAY MIX WITH SNOW AS THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ROLLS THROUGH... BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
BRING ANY IMPACTS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PERIOD IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON THE WASATCH FRONT/ CACHE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING/ EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP BEFOREHAND. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL BE
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS PERIOD OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONSIST OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RATHER
THAN ONE CONGEALED LINE OF PRECIPITATION, SO IMPACTS MAY BE ON AND
OFF AS BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS OCCURS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, WE'LL TRANSITION TO AN UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION REGIME ON
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL
SEE UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AND UPWARDS
OF 3-6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE EXCEPTION HERE WILL BE
THE UPPER COTTONWOODS (CLASSIC) AND THE NORTHERN BEAR RIVERS WHERE
WE'LL SEE LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 INCHES. NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... BUT
POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PREVIOUSLY, SEVERAL GFS
MEMBERS WERE FAVORING MORE OF A DRIER SOLUTION WITH A TROUGH HANGING
OFF THE WEST COAST. BUT THESE MEMBERS HAVE STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS
THE SOLUTION OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS NOW REPRESENTED IN ~90% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MAIN TROUGH ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL OTHER WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING THE REGION COOL
AND WET.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
UTAH ON MONDAY THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN
ADDITION TO SOME LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS WAVE
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT THE MIXING ON MONDAY. REGARDLESS, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
GUST IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WITH A
LOW END POTENTIAL (~10% CHANCE) FOR WINDS TO GUST NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH/SW WYOMING MONDAY EVENING BRINGING VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH INITIAL SNOW LEVELS STARTING >6500 FEET.
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. COLD H7 AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH 700 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -12C BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A TRAILING WAVE WILL PAIR WITH THIS COLD AIR TO PRODUCE
MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH VALLEY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE WNW AND FAVOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE GSL. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, WILL BE WARM WITH AIR TEMPERATURE STRUGGLING
TO GET TO FREEZING. THIS WILL LIMIT VALLEY IMPACTS AND ACCUMULATIONS
(IF ANY) TO ELEVATED AND VEGETATED SURFACES. ADDITIONALLY, LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN WARM WATERS ACROSS THE
GSL. 50TH PERCENTILE SNOW TOTALS ARE LESS THAN 1" ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN UTAH FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS SHOWING
TOTALS CLOSER TO 4". QPF TOTALS HAVE GONE UP WITH THE STORM AS A
RESULT OF GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SNOW TOTALS FOR AREA MOUNTAINS,
APPROACHING 12"+ OF SNOW, CLOSER TO 18" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND UPPER COTTONWOODS.
PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH STILL HAS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK, BUT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH.
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS STORM THAT WILL CONFINE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THIS
TROUGH HAS BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
HANG OVER THE TERMINAL WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
PRIMARILY OVER THE TERRAIN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AIRSPACE WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
MOST OF THE AIRSPACE WILL REMAIN DRY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEBBER / MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page