686
FXUS65 KSLC 282203
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS PARADE THROUGH UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. OUR
NEXT STORM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, YIELDING LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. A COLDER, MORE POTENT STORM IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING SUBSTANTIAL MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
SHORT TERM
A WEAK WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TODAY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30%. THIS SYSTEM WON'T
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, OTHER THAN MAINTAIN A COOLER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION, ACTING AS A PRIMER FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.
A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS
STORM ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, YIELDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS DRY
AIR QUICKLY INTRUDES INTO THE REGION.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH RECENT GUIDANCE. LOWER TERRAIN INCLUDING
THE WASATCH BACK WILL SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
(EXCLUDING THE UPPER COTTONWOODS) SEEING 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THE UPPER COTTONWOODS, CURRENT GUIDANCE RANGES
FROM 4 TO 12 INCHES. STILL NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER, COULD SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF ADVISORY- LEVEL IMPACTS AROUND THE AFTERNOON SKI COMMUTE
HOURS IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
KEY MESSAGES...
* ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (>70%) OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 9 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN UINTAS, COTTONWOODS, AND
TONY GROVE.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS UTAH WILL COME
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS MORE TIMING AND
ACCUMULATION UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
(30-50%) OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 9 INCHES.
* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW, WHILE VALLEYS
WILL SEE RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH INCREASING SNOW CHANCES BY LATE
TUESDAY.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SPILL
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND THE GREAT BASIN, BEING DRIVEN INLAND BY A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT THIS WILL EJECT
ACROSS UTAH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS EJECTING SHORTWAVE,
MUCH COOLER AIR (H7 FALLING TO AROUND -10C) WILL SPILL IN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL BRING INITIALLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS
QUICKLY FALLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE VALLEYS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW, THE AFTERNOON
TIMING WITH APRIL SUN ANGLES AND MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY LIMIT ANY VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE CURRENT TIMING,
BY THE TIME THE SUN IS SETTING, PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUTTING OFF
IN THE COLD ADVECTION LEAVING LIGHTER LINGERING SHOWERS. THE ONE
WILD CARD COULD BE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, BUT THE CURRENT LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNFICIANT DECREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS AS TO HOW THE UPSTREAM
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVOLVES. WHILE ABOUT 60% OF
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WEST AND THE GREAT
BASIN WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW,
WHILE THE OTHER 40% OR SO SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS FROM A FAST EXITING
TROUGH TO OUR WEST WITH RAPID DRYING, TO THE TROUGH RE-DEVELOPING TO
OUR WEST WITH A PERIOD OF DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW BEFORE A LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH. THE OVERALL MESSAGE SEEMS TO BE ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
COMES IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHT RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS APPEARING LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR
TOMORROW EVENING, THOUGH THERE WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
AND IT WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KSGU AND KCDC AHEAD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR
VALLEY SITES AND LIGHT SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SITES TOMORROW
MORNING/AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NEARLY
ALL SITES TOMORROW WITH CEILINGS DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW 6000FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND PREVAILING -RA/-SN MAY FOLLOW, THOUGH
THIS OCCURS OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE TIMEFRAME AND WILL LIKELY
BE ADDED WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WHITLAM
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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